As the final days of 2020 play out, we can now look into 2021. After such an incredibly tumulus and sporadic year, do you feel lucky ?
The number 21 is often associated with luck and taking risk. It’s the age you must be before entering into an American casino and the target number in the popular casino game, Blackjack.
These notions of risk and luck all seem to familiar for such a year of uncertainty. However, this years prize is not accompanied by million dollar cash prize or a brand new Maserati, but the invaluable chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. Though, risks to health, economic vitality, and and social stability all remain.
As 2021 apporaches, here are ten items to watch in the year ahead:
1. Fights Over Vaccines
As the first of the vaccines become available in supply, the focus will now shift from developing them to distributing them. The vaccines limited supply will lead to a global tug of war as to who should get them first and when. Perhaps the most challenging task will be vaccine refusal (15% of Americans would refuse a vaccine entirely).
2. Mixed Economic Recovery
As economies begin to bounce back from the pandemic, the recovery pendulum will swing back and forth as outbreaks and lockdowns come and go, and governments continue supporting unemployed workers. The inequality between mega and mini corporations will widen.
3. Patching up the new world order
How much will Joe Biden, the president-elect, be able to patch up a failing rules-based international order? Biden will likely rejoin the Paris climate treaty, but the JCPOA is also a good place to start.
4. More US-China tensions
Despite a less combative U.S. president now in the White House, don’t expect him to raise the white flag in America’s trade war with China. Trump’s tariffs will remain, but Biden will aim to mend relationships with allies to wage it more effectively.
5. Companies on the front line
The U.S./China conflict will also impact companies, as evident with Huawei and TikTok, making business even more of a geopolitical battlefield. Bosses will also face pressures form below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice.
6. After the tech-celeration
In 2020, the global pandemic accelerated the adoption of many technologic trends and behaviors, from video-conferencing to curbside pick up. Going forward, expect these trends to continue.
7. A less footloose world
Tourism will shrink and change, as people begin to travel more domestically. Airlines and hotels will struggle, as will universities who rely on foreign students.
8. An opportunity on climate change
A silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis is the chance to take effective action on climate change, as governments recognize the importance of investing in green recovery plans to create jobs and cut emissions. The UN climate conference, delayed this year, will be important to watch.
9. The year of deja vu
2021 will feel like a second take on 2020, as major events including the Olympics, Euro cup, and Dubai Expot do their best to open a year later. Some will fail.
10. A wake-up call for other risks
Academics and analysts will try to exploit the narrow window of opportunity to get policy makers to face and help prevent other neglected risks, including antibiotic resistance and domestic terrorism.
The coming year will be met with welcomed arms, but also a hint of worry and anxiety. After a year many will wish to forget, 2020 will be forever remembered by historians across the globe.
Works Cited:
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/ten-trends-to-watch-in-the-coming-year