After nearly two weeks of incredibly volatile equity markets and eerie central bank policy meetings, here are four risks that investors of all varieties should focus on come the end of the month.
1. The possibility of further U.S. stimulus (CARES 2.0)
A potential second round of U.S. stimulus could represent a $1 trillion (potentially up to $2.2 T) swing in economic data. Morgan Stanley’s Public Policy group believes the deadline will be the end of September, as members of congress need to pack up and get on the campaign trail.
2. First U.S. Presidential debate (Sept. 29)
One of the key moments in the U.S. campaign, the first debate will require investor attention as the night is sure to reveal both candidates economic plans going forward. Executives across the United States have asked for raises in year-end bonuses in the chance Biden secures victory in November (expected to raise taxes).
3. COVD-19 Cases (end of month)
Moving into the Fall students worldwide head back to school, from kindergarten to post-secondary institutions. The end of September will likely give us a better idea of the fallout of the gradual “re-opening” across the world. However, with each passing day, we move closer to a vaccine, with positive progression receiving the majority of coverage.
4. Brexit (end of month)
As British PM Boris Johnson and Charles Michel, head of the European council, continue to duel it out at the bargaining table, the probability (judged by Wall Street economists) of a no-deal Brexit has risen. This heightened chance is likely to cause more negative-market sentiment.
Works Cited:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-time-lighten-exposure-here-are-next-four-risks-markets