Like WAR in Sabermetrics, the “Four Factors”, as coined by Dean Oliver, are the box scored derived metrics that correlate most closely with winning basketball games. These factors can also help locate a team’s strengths, and their weaknesses.
Four factor’s can be applied to both a team’s offence and defense:
- Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
- Turnover Percentage (TO%)
- Offensive/Defensive Rebound Percentage (OREB% + DREB%)
- Free Throw Rate
eFG% = (Field Goals Made) + 0.5*3P Field Goals Made))/(Field Goal Attempts)
TO% = Turnovers/(Field Goal Attempts + 0.44*Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers)
OREB% = (Offensive Rebounds)/[(Offensive Rebounds)+(Opponent’s Defensive Rebounds)]
Free Throw Rate = (Free Throws Made)/(Field Goals Attempted) or Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted
The Raptor’s leader’s in each statistic are as follows:
Chris Boucher has the highest eFG% at 0.618 (61.8%), which ranks 8th best in the NBA.
Aaron Baynes has the highest DREB% at 26.3%, while Boucher has leads his team in OREB% at 9%.
Chris Boucher also has the highest FTR at 26.44% (.2644).
When comparing with the league’s best, the player with the highest eFG% is Jarrett Allen of the Cleveland Cavaliers at .691 (only 80 points above Boucher).
Defensive Rebound % is lead by Andre Drummond, at 40.2%, nearly 14% higher than Toronto’s leader, Baynes.
Offensive Rebound % is led by Clint Capela, at 17.4%, a little over 8% than Toronto’s leader, Boucher.
Free Throw Rate is currently led by Joel Embiid, at 0.6975 (69.75%). This is significantly higher than Toronto’s leader Chris Boucher. This could be due to Toronto playing at a slower pace than Philadelphia, or the face the Embiid plays many more minutes than Boucher.
These numbers would provide more evidence as to why Chris should be playing more, despite the tendency coach Nick Nurse to play his centers based on opposition matchups.
We have just passed the one quarter mark for the 2020/2021 season, so these numbers are likely to change.
Raptors play Brooklyn next on Friday night.
Works Cited:
https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/four-factors/
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_leaders.html